Global Economic Confidence Hits Pandemic Lows in Q1 2026

Global economic confidence among finance professionals has dropped to levels last seen during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in Q1 2026. Data from the latest ACCA and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) reveals this significant decline. The ongoing Middle East conflict and surging commodity prices are the main drivers of this reduced sentiment.

African countries are expected to lose up to 0.2 percentage points of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2026. This economic setback is primarily due to the Middle East conflict. The conflict will also push Africa’s median inflation rate up to an expected 5% by the end of 2026. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a 95% drop in maritime traffic. This has led to surging energy and fertilizer prices, essential for African agriculture and trade.

This downturn comes at a critical time for Ghana’s economy, which often feels global economic shocks keenly. Ghana’s macroeconomic stability depends heavily on global commodity prices, especially for oil and other key imports. Rising global inflation typically translates into increased domestic costs, affecting everything from food prices to transport in Ghana. Sustained high energy and fertilizer prices could significantly impact Ghana’s agricultural sector and food security, a vital part of its economy. The Bank of Ghana, Ghana Statistical Service, and Ministry of Finance constantly monitor such external pressures.

Jamil Ampomah, Director for Africa at ACCA, highlighted the interconnectedness of global risks. He stated, “This shift does not suggest a reduction in economic worries, but a growing recognition of how converging forces shape the macro landscape.” Ampomah also noted that respondents point to AI and cyber threats amplifying other risks. He emphasized that eroding trust in institutions, information, and leadership is becoming a defining feature of operating in Africa today.

The immediate outlook involves continued vigilance from economic policymakers in Ghana and globally. Decision-makers must brace for potentially sustained high energy and commodity prices. Businesses will need to adapt to increased operating costs and supply chain disruptions. Markets will closely watch developments in global geopolitical hotspots for any signs of de-escalation, which could offer some relief. The potential for further inflation will influence central bank decisions, including interest rate policies in Ghana.

Jonathan Ashworth, Chief Economist at ACCA, warned about the difficulty policymakers face. He explained that major supply shocks create very tricky situations. He also noted that central bankers must tread very carefully after years of above-target inflation. Ashworth also believes that very high government debt levels constrain the room for major fiscal support in many countries. This includes even advanced economies, limiting options for cushioning economic impacts.