Ivory Coast Sells 1 Million Tons of Cocoa as El Nino Threatens Crops

Ivory Coast has already sold roughly 1 million metric tons of cocoa for its upcoming 2026-27 main crop. This figure represents significant forward sales for the world’s largest cocoa producer. However, the nation is now deliberately slowing down further sales. This cautious move comes as concerns grow about dry weather conditions associated with the El Niño phenomenon possibly reducing future harvests.

The Abidjan-based Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) has also taken a step to increase the price of future cocoa sales. They have raised their premium by at least £100, which is about $135, above the current futures price. Previously, this premium was set at zero for new sales. These actions signal a belief in strong demand for cocoa and an expectation of a more challenging supply situation when the next season begins on September 1.

This strategy fits into a broader narrative of managing commodity supply in West Africa. Ivory Coast and Ghana, together, produce over 60% of the world's cocoa. Both nations often face challenges related to weather patterns and crop diseases. In recent years, fluctuating global commodity prices have emphasized the need for producers to secure favourable terms. The rising demand for chocolate globally means cocoa remains a critical export for Ghana's economy, contributing significantly to foreign exchange earnings and public finances.

One source from the CCC stated that “We have already sold between 950,000 and 1 million tons for next season, but we preferred to slow down and be cautious. We are selling less and less.” This indicates a deliberate strategy to manage risk. Two European sources, including a senior executive at a global agri-commodities firm, confirmed that CCC’s forward sales are rumoured to be between 1.1 and 1.2 million tons. They also confirmed the increase in the premium charged for cocoa.

The implications of this strategy are significant. If El Niño indeed causes reduced output, Ivory Coast’s decision to slow sales and raise premiums could lead to higher cocoa prices globally. This could affect chocolate manufacturers worldwide. Ghana, as the second-largest producer, will also be closely watching these developments. Market participants will monitor El Niño’s actual impact on weather and crop yields in the coming months. Decisions on fertiliser purchases and plantation maintenance will be crucial for both nations aiming to ensure future production stability.